Modeling spatiotemporal Aedes aegypti risk in French Guiana using meteorological and remote sensing data

Abstract

AbstractAlthough the development of vaccines for the prevention of arboviral diseases has been a priority in recent years, prevention strategies continue to depend on vector control. Risk maps at scales appropriate for these strategies can provide valuable information to assess entomological risk levels and guide actions. We used a spatio-temporal modeling approach to predict, at the local scale, the risk of homes potentially harboring Aedes aegypti larvae. The model used integrated larvae risk data collected in the field from September 2011 to February 2013, environmental data obtained from very high spatial resolution Pleiades imagery, and daily meteorological data, collected in the city of Matoury in French Guiana. Various environmental and meteorological conditions were identified as risk or protective factors for the presence of immature stages of Aedes aegypti in homes on a given date and used to produce dynamic maps with high spatial and temporal resolution. Aedes vector risk was modeled between 50 and 200 m, around houses, on a time scale of 3 to 5 days. The resulting model was extrapolated to other municipalities with the same characteristics of urbanization during the 2019-2020 dengue epidemic in French Guiana. This work represents a major opportunity to monitor the evolution of vector risk and constitutes information that could be particularly useful for public health authorities in charge of vector control.