Preliminary High-Level Modelling Estimates of Impacts of Denicotinisation on Smoking Prevalence in Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract

ABSTRACTAimTo provide preliminary high-level modelling estimates of the impact of denicotinisation of tobacco on changes in smoking prevalence in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ).MethodsAn Excel spreadsheet was populated with smoking/vaping prevalence data from the NZ Health Survey and business-as-usual trends projected. Using various parameters from the literature (NZ trial data, NZ EASE-ITC Study results), we modelled the impact of denicotinisation of tobacco (with no other tobacco permitted for sale) out to 2025, the year of this country’s Smokefree Goal. Scenario 1 used estimates from a published expert knowledge elicitation process, and Scenario 2 considered the addition of extra mass media campaign and quitline support to the base case.ResultsWith the denicotinisation intervention, adult daily smoking prevalences were all estimated to decline to under 5% in 2025 for non-Māori and in one scenario for Māori (Indigenous population) (2.5% in Scenario 1). However, prevalence did not fall below five percent in the base case for Māori (7.7%) or with Scenario 2 (5.2%). In the base case, vaping was estimated to increase to 7.9% in the adult population in 2025, and up to 10.7% in one scenario (Scenario 1).ConclusionsThis preliminary, high-level modelling suggests a mandated denicotinisation policy for could provide a realistic chance of achieving the NZ Government’s Smokefree 2025 Goal. The probability of success would further increase if supplemented with other interventions such as mass media campaigns with Quitline support (especially if targeted for a predominantly Māori audience). Nevertheless, there is much uncertainty with these preliminary high-level results and more sophisticated modelling is highly desirable.