When does contacting more people lessen the transmission of infectious diseases?

Author:

Mello Bernardo A.ORCID

Abstract

AbstractA primary concern in epidemics is to minimize the probability of contagion, often resorting to reducing the number of contacted people. However, the success of that strategy depends on the shape of the dose-response curve, which relates the response of the exposed person to the pathogen dose received from surrounding infected people. If the reduction is achieved by spending more time with each contacted person, the pathogen charge received from each infected individual will be larger. The extended time spent close to each person may worsen the expected response if the dose-response curve is concave for small doses. This is the case when the expected response is negligible below a certain dose threshold and rises sharply above it. This paper proposes a mathematical model to calculate the expected response and uses it to identify the conditions when it would be advisable to reduce the contact time with each individual even at the cost of increasing the number of contacted people.

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

Reference23 articles.

1. Mukherjee S. How does the coronavirus behave inside a patient? New Yorker Magazine. 2020;.

2. Cheng Y , Ma N , Witt C , Rapp S , Wild PS , Andreae MO , et al. Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Science. 2021;.

3. Characterization of infectious dose and lethal dose of two strains of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV)

4. A dynamic dose–response model to account for exposure patterns in risk assessment: a case study in inhalation anthrax;Journal of The Royal Society Interface,2011

5. Industrial inhalation anthrax;Bacteriological reviews,1966

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3