Author:
Bolam Friederike C.,Mair Louise,Angelico Marco,Brooks Thomas M.,Burgman Mark,Hermes Claudia,Hoffmann Michael,Martin Rob W.,McGowan Philip J.K.,Rodrigues Ana S.L.,Rondinini Carlo,Wheatley Hannah,Bedolla-Guzmán Yuliana,Calzada Javier,Child Matthew F.,Cranswick Peter A.,Dickman Christopher R.,Fessl Birgit,Fisher Diana O.,Garnett Stephen T.,Groombridge Jim J.,Johnson Christopher N.,Kennerley Rosalind J.,King Sarah R.B.,Lamoreux John F.,Lees Alexander C.,Lens Luc,Mahood Simon P.,Mallon David P.,Meijaard Erik,Méndez-Sánchez Federico,Percequillo Alexandre Reis,Regan Tracey J.,Renjifo Luis Miguel,Rivers Malin C.,Roach Nicolette S.,Roxburgh Lizanne,Safford Roger J.,Salaman Paul,Squires Tom,Vázquez-Domínguez Ella,Visconti Piero,Westrip James R.S.,Woinarski John C.Z.,Young Richard P.,Butchart Stuart H.M.
Abstract
AbstractAichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims to ‘prevent extinctions of known threatened species’. To measure its success, we used a Delphi expert elicitation method to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993 - 2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010 - 2020 (the timing of Aichi Target 12). We found that conservation prevented 21–32 bird and 7–16 mammal extinctions since 1993, and 9–18 bird and 2–7 mammal extinctions since 2010. Many remain highly threatened, and may still become extinct in the near future. Nonetheless, given that ten bird and five mammal species did go extinct (or are strongly suspected to) since 1993, extinction rates would have been 2.9–4.2 times greater without conservation action. While policy commitments have fostered significant conservation achievements, future biodiversity action needs to be scaled up to avert additional extinctions.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory