When to depart from a stopover site? Time since arrival matters more than current weather conditions

Abstract

AbstractOn the journey to wintering sites, migratory birds usually alternate between flights and stopovers where they rest and refuel. Migration strategies are assumed to differ according to season: a time-minimization pre-breeding migration strategy towards breeding locations, and an energy-minimization post-breeding migration strategy to wintering ones. The duration of flights and stopovers determines the energy requirements and the total duration of the journey. Since migrating birds actually spend most of the time at stopovers, selection to minimize the amount of energy or time spent on migration is very likely to operate on the effectiveness of stopover rest and refueling. Here we address the relative contribution of factors to departure decisions from stopover sites during the post-breeding migration in a long-distance migratory songbird. When capture probability is low it is impossible to assess the variation in body condition over the entire duration of the stopover. To get around this, we use Time Since Arrival (TSA) as a proxy for the changes in the state of individuals during the stopover. We propose that TSA is an integrative proxy for resting, feeding and fattening efficiency. We develop a capture-recapture model to address the relationship between departure probability, estimated TSA, and weather conditions. Using a 20-year dataset from sedge warblers, we show that TSA has a larger effect on departure probability than weather conditions. Low humidity and an increase in atmospheric pressure in the days preceding departure are associated with higher departure probability, but these effects are smaller than that of TSA.