USES OF THE SKEW-LOGISTIC FUNCTION FOR MULTI-WAVE FUNCTIONS

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe Skew-Logistic (SL) function has been proposed to model a real-life dynamic process which rises monotonically to a peak followed by a monotonic decline. It was introduced to model the first stage of the Covid-19 pandemic to forecast the behaviour of Covid. Then, with different controls and variants, Covid levels rose and fell in what might be called a Multi-Wave (MW) behaviour; with the waves not necessarily the same size. This paper shows how using the SL function for one wave can be modified to model the MW situation. We apply it to two examples. One is to Covid -19, to examine its most recent behaviour. The other is to climate change, the most serious issue of our time. Ensuring that the world simply achieves carbon-equality is not enough. We have to rapidly achieve carbon-negativity to prevent bringing an end to the world as we know it.