The estimated disease burden of COVID-19 in Japan from 2020 to 2021

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundTo date, it is not fully understood to what extent COVID-19 has burdened society in Japan. This study aimed to estimate the total disease burden due to COVID-19 in Japan during 2020-2021.MethodsWe stratify disease burden estimates by age group and present it as absolute Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost and QALYs lost per 100,000 persons. The total estimated value of QALYs lost consists of (1) QALYs lost brought by deaths due to COVID-19, (2) QALYs lost brought by inpatient cases, (3) QALYs lost brought by outpatient cases, and (4) QALYs lost brought by long-COVID.FindingsQALYs lost due to COVID-19 was estimated as 286,781·7 for two years, 114·0 QALYs per 100,000 population per year. 71·3% of them were explained by the burden derived from deaths. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the burden of outpatient cases was the most sensitive factor.InterpretationThe large part of disease burden due to COVID-19 in Japan from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2021 was derived from Wave 3, 4, and 5 and the proportion of QALYs lost due to morbidity in the total burden increased gradually. The estimated disease burden was smaller than that in other high-income countries. It will be our future challenge to take other indirect factors into consideration.FundingsThis research was funded by JSPS KAKENHI [Grant number 20K10546]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.