Abstract
AbstractThroughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany lacked an adaptive population panel for epidemic diseases and a modelling platform to rapidly incorporate panel estimates.We evaluated how a cross-sectional analysis of 9922 participants of the MuSPAD study in June/July 2022 combined with a newly developed modelling platform could bridge the gap and analyzed antibody levels, neutralizing serum activity and interferon-gamma release response of serum samples. We categorized the population into four groups with differing protection against severe course of disease (validated by neutralizing serum activity), and found that 30% were in the group with highest protection, and 85% in either the highest categories or second highest group regarding protection level.Estimated hospitalizations due to SARS-CoV-2 were predicted to be between 30 to 300% of the peak in 02/2021 dependent on assumed variant characteristics. We showed the feasibility of a rapid epidemic panel able to evaluate complex endpoints for SARS-CoV-2 and inform scenario modelling.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
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