Control strategies for heterogeneous plant pathogens: evolutionary and agricultural consequences

Abstract

ABSTRACTOptimising the use of chemical pesticide is required in order to reduce the inevitable environmental and economic costs related to it. The consequences of chemical control are particularly tricky to foresee in the presence of pathogens, displaying heterogeneous traits involved in their life cycle, because its effect will likely differ across the population. In this work, we investigate the effects of trait-dependent pesticide on heterogeneous plant pathogens, by means of a minimal model connecting evolutionary and agricultural states of the system. We model a pathogen population displaying continuous levels of virulence and transmission. Control strategies are modelled by the quantity of pesticide released and its degree of correlation with the pathogen’s heterogeneous traits. We show that the pathogen population can adapt towards opposite evolutionary states, that may be reversed by chemical control due to its heterogeneous selective pressure. This dual behaviour triggers saturating effects in yield production, with respect to pesticide use. As a consequence, we show that maximising yield production and minimising pesticide application are conflicting objectives. We identify Pareto-efficient solutions, where the optimal pesticide type depends on the applied quantity. Our results provide a theoretical framework to explore how to harness heterogeneity in pathogen populations to our advantage.