300 years of change for native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin – historical flow alterations versus future climate change

Abstract

AbstractRiver ecosystems belong to the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Historical anthropogenic alterations have, and future climate change will further affect river ecosystems and the species therein. While many studies assess the potential effects of expected future changes on species, little is known about the severity of these changes compared to historical alterations. Here, we used a unique 300-year time series of hydrological and climate data to assess the vulnerability of 48 native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin. We calculated species-specific vulnerability estimates relative to the reference period (1970-2000) for the periods 1800-1830, 1900-1930, and 2070-2100, including two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and identified the environmental drivers of vulnerability estimates. Models showed that future changes under RCP 4.5 would result in moderate species vulnerability compared to historical conditions, while under RCP 8.5, the vulnerability for all species increased substantially. In addition, species vulnerability was mainly driven by hydrology in the past and is likely to be driven by temperature in the future. Our results show that future climate change would alter environmental conditions for riverine fish species at a similar magnitude as historical anthropogenic hydrological river alterations have. Shedding light on such long-term historical and possible future anthropogenic alterations provides valuable insights for prioritising conservation actions for riverine fish species.