Abstract
AbstractObjectiveHow helpful would a properly functioning find, test, trace, isolate and support (FTTIS) system be now in the UK with new Covid-19 infections at a low level and half the adult population immunised but with a highly transmissible variant becoming predominant?Designa dynamic causal model of Covid-19 supplied with the latest available empirical data is used to assess the impact of a new highly transmissible variant.Settingthe United Kingdom.Participantsa population based study.Interventionsscenarios are used to explore a Covid-19 transmission rate 50% more and twice the current rate with or without a more effective FTTIS system.Main outcome measuresincidence, death rate and reproductive ratioResultsa small short third wave of infections occurs which does not occur if FTTIS effectiveness is improved from 25% to 30%.Conclusiona modest improvement in FTTIS would prevent a third wave caused by a highly transmissible virus.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
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