Visible and real dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine in the spring of 2021

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe visible and real sizes the last COVID-19 epidemic wave in Ukraine, estimated in March 2021 with the use of generalized SIR-model, are compared with number of cases registered in the spring of 2021. We have used the optimal value of the visibility coefficient in order to estimate the real numbers of accumulated cases, real daily numbers of new cases and real number of infectious persons. The results show that the latest prediction for Ukraine is in rather good agreement with observations, but the daily number of new cases decreases more slowly than theoretical predictions. The large real number of infectious people threatens the emergence of new strains of coronavirus and the beginning of new epidemic waves.