Transformation of coral communities subjected to an unprecedented heatwave is modulated by local disturbance

Abstract

Corals are imminently threatened by climate change-amplified marine heatwaves. Yet how to conserve reef ecosystems faced with this threat remains unclear, since protected reefs often seem equally or more susceptible to thermal stress as unprotected ones. Here, we disentangle this apparent paradox, revealing that the relationship between reef disturbance and heatwave impacts depends upon the focal scale of biological organization. We document a heatwave of unprecedented duration that culminated in an 89% loss of coral cover. At the community level, losses hinged on pre-heatwave community structure, with sites dominated by competitive corals—which were predominantly protected from local disturbance—undergoing the greatest losses. In contrast, at the species level, survivorship of individual coral colonies typically decreased as local disturbance intensified, illustrating that underlying chronic disturbances can impair resilience to thermal stress at this scale. Our study advances understanding of the relationship between climate change and local disturbance, knowledge of which is crucial for coral conservation this century.