The Defense of Shangri-La: A Thought Experiment of Periodic Community-wide Screening in the Future Pandemic

Author:

Duan AnqiORCID,Li JianORCID,Yang Zhen,He YungangORCID

Abstract

AbstractObjectivesIn a dangerous future pandemic without effective vaccines and medicines, a reliable screening-and-isolation strategy can be the last opportunity to keep critical facilities and communities running and avoid a complete shutdown.MethodsIn this study, we introduced an epidemiological model that included essential parameters of infection transmission and screening. With varying parameters, we studied the dynamics of viral infection in the semi-isolated communities.ResultsIn the scenario with a periodic infection screening once per 3 days and a viral basic reproduction number 3.0, more than 85% of the infection waves have a duration less than 7 days and the infection size in each of the waves is generally less than 4 individuals when the efficiency of infection discovery is 0.9 in the screening. When the period of screening was elongated to once per 7 days, the cases of infection dramatically increased to 5 folds of that mentioned previously. Further, with a weak discovery efficiency of 0.7 and the aforementioned low screening frequency, the spread of infection would be out of control.ConclusionsOur study suggests that frequent periodic screening is capable of controlling a future epidemic in a semi-isolated community without vaccines and medicines.

Publisher

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3