Counting Cases and Deaths by Age Tells Us About COVID-19’s Infectious and Lethal Components

Abstract

Gauging COVID-19’slethality, and how vaccination can reduce thatlethality, has been challenging. Here, a new method,Gompertzian Analysis, counting cases and deaths, by age, and displaying them on logarithmic graphs, is outlined, and its first findings presented: FIRST, COVID-19Gompertzian Lethality(Deaths/Cases) exhibits an ~10,000-fold exponential increase in the chance of death with age, theGompertzian Force of Mortality, captured by theGompertz Mortality Equation. SECOND, COVID-19Pasteurian Infectivity(Cases/Population) occurs at similar rates across ages. THIRD, the sameGompertzian Force of Mortalitycharacterizes other diseases and all-cause mortality, possibly from loss ofMitotic Dilutionof toxic compounds due to decline in mitosis. FOURTH, resistance to COVID-19infectivityandlethalityappear to be separate processes. FIFTH, Over the past several years,Gompertzian Lethality, has declined, but notPasteurian Infectivity. SIXTH, with each variant,Gompertzian Lethalityhas declined, but notPasteurian Infectivity. SEVENTH, the unvaccinated have seen a decline inGompertzian Lethality, less than the vaccinated, ascribable to infection, at the cost of lives lost. EIGHTH, different vaccines have different reductions inGompertzian LethalityandPasteurian Infectivity. NINTH, vaccination has reducedPasteurian Infectivity, but not enough to suppress the pandemic. TENTH, vaccination has reducedGompertzian Lethality, with sequential vaccination pointing linearly towards zero death after 3 or 4 boosters, without signs of waning. CONCLUSION:Gompertzian Analysisprovides new, practical, actionable, information for understanding, and minimizing, the lethal burden of COVID-19 and other diseases.