Building resilient cervical cancer prevention through gender-neutral HPV vaccination

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted HPV vaccination programmes worldwide. Using an agent-based model, EpiMetHeos, recently calibrated to Indian data, we illustrate how shifting from girls-only (GO) to gender-neutral (GN) vaccination strategy could improve the resilience of cervical cancer prevention against disruption of HPV vaccination. In the base case of 5-year disruption with no coverage, shifting from GO to GN strategy under 60% coverage (before disruption) would increase the resilience, in terms of cervical cancer cases still prevented in the disrupted birth cohorts per 100,000 girls born, by 2.8-fold from 107 to 302 cases, and by 2.2-fold from 209 to 464 cases under 90% coverage. Furthermore, shifting to GN vaccination helped in reaching the WHO elimination threshold. Under GO vaccination with 60% coverage, the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of cervical cancer in India in the long-term with vaccination decreased from 11.0 to 4.7 cases per 100,000 woman-years (above threshold), as compared to 2.8 cases (below threshold) under GN with 60% coverage and 2.4 cases (below threshold) under GN with 90% coverage. In conclusion, GN HPV vaccination is an effective strategy to improve the resilience to disruption of cancer prevention programmes and to enhance the progress towards cervical cancer elimination.