Spatiotemporal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineages during 2020-2021 in Pernambuco - Brazil

Abstract

AbstractIn recent years, the SARS-CoV-2 viruses emerged and spread around the world, leaving a large death toll and long-lasting impact on survivors. As of January 2023, Brazil is still among the countries with the highest number of registered deaths. This continental-size and pluralistic country experienced a heterogenous implementation of non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions which, associated with large socioeconomic differences between the country regions, has led to distinct virus spread dynamics across the country. Here we investigate the spatiotemporal dispersion of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages and its dynamics in distinct epidemiological scenarios in the first two years of the pandemics in the Pernambuco state (Northeast Brazil). We generated a total of 1389 new SARS-CoV-2 genomes from June 2020 to August 2021 covering all major regions of the state. This sampling captured the arrival, communitary transmission and the circulation of the B1.1, B.1.1.28 and B.1.1.33 lineages in the first eight months of the pandemics, the emergence of the former variant of interest P.2 and the emergence and fast replacement of all previous variants by the more transmissible variant of concern P.1 (Gamma) lineage. Based on the incidence and lineage spread pattern we observed that there was an East-to-West to inner state pattern of transmission which is in agreement with the transmission of more populous metropolitan areas to medium and small size country-side cities in the state. Such transmission patterns may be partially explained by the main routes of traffic across municipalities in the state. Nevertheless, inter-state traffic was also another important source of lineage introduction and spread into the state. Our results highlight that the fine grained intrastate analysis of lineages and incidence spread can provide actionable insights for planning future non-pharmacological intervention for air-borne transmissible human pathogens.