Effect of human mobility in Dengue spreading: Study cases for Caldas (CO)

Abstract

AbstractAccording to the World Health Organization (WHO), dengue is the most common acute arthropod-borne viral infection in the world. The spread of dengue and other infectious diseases is closely related to human activity and mobility. In this paper we analyze the effect on the total number of dengue cases within a population after introducing mobility restrictions as a public health policy. To perform the analysis, we use a complex metapopulation in which we implement a compartmental propagation model coupled with the mobility of individuals between the patches. This model is used to investigate the spread of dengue in the municipalities of Caldas (CO). Two scenarios corresponding to different types of mobility restrictions are applied. In the first scenario, the effect of restricting mobility is analyzed in three different ways: a) limiting the access to the endemic node but allowing the movement of its inhabitants, b) restricting the diaspora of the inhabitants of the endemic node but allowing the access of outsiders, and c) a total isolation of the inhabitants of the endemic node. In this scenario, the best simulation results are obtained when endemic nodes are isolated during a dengue outbreak, obtaining a reduction of up to 22.51% of dengue cases. Finally, the second scenario simulates a total isolation of the network,i.e., mobility between nodes is completely limited. We have found that this control measure reduces the number of total dengue cases in the network by up to 42.67%.Author summaryFor the World Health Organization, dengue is a disease of public health concern. In recent years there is an increasing trend in the number of dengue cases despite existing prevention and control campaigns. The mobility of the population is considered an important factor in dengue dispersion. In this paper, we are interested in addressing how restrictions to human mobility might affect the incidence of dengue in a region. Our research is relevant because the model can be adapted to other regions or scales, and the mobility control measures can be taken into account for the development of public health policies in endemic regions.