Bioen-OSMOSE: A bioenergetic marine ecosystem model with physiological response to temperature and oxygen

Abstract

ABSTRACTMarine ecosystem models have been used to project the impacts of climate-induced changes in temperature and oxygen on biodiversity mainly through changes in species spatial distributions and primary production. However, fish populations may also respond to climatic pressures via physiological changes, leading to modifications in their life history that could either mitigate or worsen the consequences of climate change.Building on the individual-based multispecies ecosystem model OSMOSE, Bioen-OSMOSE has been developed to account for high trophic levels’ physiological responses to temperature and oxygen in future climate projections. This paper presents an overview of the Bioen-OSMOSE model, mainly detailing the new developments. These consist in the implementation of a bioenergetic sub-model that mechanistically describes somatic growth, sexual maturation and reproduction as they emerge from the energy fluxes sustained by food intake under the hypotheses of a biphasic growth model and plastic maturation age and size represented by a maturation reaction norm. These fluxes depend on temperature and oxygen concentration, thus allowing plastic physiological responses to climate change.To illustrate the capabilities of Bioen-OSMOSE to represent realistic ecosystem dynamics, the model is applied to the North Sea ecosystem. The model outputs are confronted with population biomass, catch, maturity ogive, mean size-at-age and diet data of each species of the fish community. A first exploration of current species spatial variability in response to temperature or oxygen is presented in this paper. The model succeeds in reproducing observations, with good performances for all indicators.This new model development opens the scope for new fields of research such as the exploration of seasonal or spatial variation in life history in response to biotic and abiotic factors at the individual, population and community levels. Understanding such variability is crucial to improve our knowledge on potential climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and to make more reliable projections under climate change scenarios.