Age-specific case data reveal varying dengue transmission intensity in US states and territories

Abstract

AbstractDengue viruses (DENV) are endemic in the US territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, and the US Virgin Islands, with focal outbreaks also reported in the states of Florida and Hawaii. However, little is known about the intensity of dengue virus transmission over time and how dengue viruses have shaped the level of immunity in these populations, despite the importance of understanding how and why levels of immunity against dengue may change over time. These changes need to be considered when responding to future outbreaks and enacting dengue management strategies, such as guiding vaccine deployment. We used catalytic models fitted to case surveillance data stratified by age from the ArboNET national arboviral surveillance system to reconstruct the history of recent dengue virus transmission in Puerto Rico, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Florida, Hawaii, and Guam. We estimated average annual transmission intensity (i.e., force of infection) of DENV between 2010 and 2019 and the level of seroprevalence by age group in each population. We compared models and found that treating all reported cases as secondary infections generally fit the surveillance data better than models considering cases as primary infections. Using the secondary case model, we found that force of infection was highly heterogeneous between jurisdictions and over time within jurisdictions, ranging from 0.00003 (95% CI: 0.00002–0.0004) in Florida to 0.08 (95% CI: 0.044–0.14) in American Samoa during the 2010–2019 period. For early 2020, we estimated that seropositivity in 10 year-olds ranged from 0.09% (0.02%–0.54%) in Florida to 56.3% (43.7%–69.3%) in American Samoa. In the absence of serological data, age-specific case notification data collected through routine surveillance combined with mathematical modeling are powerful tools to monitor arbovirus circulation, estimate the level of population immunity, and design dengue management strategies.Author SummaryViruses transmitted byAedesmosquitoes are a substantial public health burden globally. In the US, the increasing number of outbreaks in recent decades and the co-circulation of the four dengue viruses present a risk of experiencing sequential infections, which can result in more severe disease. However, reported cases only represent a proportion of all infections, so the intensity of dengue circulation in US jurisdictions and the level of population immunity are largely unknown. Combining dengue surveillance data stratified by age with mathematical models enables direct estimation of transmission intensity and previous exposure. We found that dengue virus transmission intensity was highest in American Samoa and Puerto Rico. The US Virgin Islands also showed patterns of endemic transmission, while Hawaii and Guam present more sporadic outbreak profiles. These estimates can help improve risk assessment in these locations and guide interventions to the populations who most need them.