Abstract
AbstractIn this article, we conduct a literature review on the history and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases and COVID-19. Next, some simple epidemic dynamic models and the basic reproductive number theory are introduced. We propose a SEIDR model for COVID-19 and provide the solution methods for the basic reproduction number, parameters, and dynamic model. Finally, we simulate the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa with the SEIDR model.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Reference32 articles.
1. Moses Finley et al. History of the Peloponnesian war. Penguin UK, 1974.
2. Infectious Diseases and Human Population History
3. Overview on sars in asia and the world;Respirology,2003
4. Emergence and pandemic potential of swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus
5. Mers coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission;Virology journal,2015