Abstract
AbstractAs the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, distinct variants emerged and dominated in England. These variants, Wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron were characterized by variations in transmissibility and severity. We used a robust mathematical model and Bayesian inference framework to analyse epidemiological surveillance data from England. We quantified the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), therapeutics, and vaccination on virus transmission and severity. Each successive variant had a higher intrinsic transmissibility. Omicron (BA.1) had the highest basic reproduction number at 8.3 (95% credible interval (CrI) 7.7-8.8). Varying levels of NPIs were crucial in controlling virus transmission until population immunity accumulated. Immune escape properties of Omicron decreased effective levels of immunity in the population by a third. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies, we found Alpha had the highest basic infection fatality ratio (2.9%, 95% CrI 2.7-3.2), followed by Delta (2.2%, 95% CrI 2.0-2.4), Wildtype (1.2%, 95% CrI 1.1-1.2), and Omicron (0.7%, 95% CrI 0.6-0.8). Our findings highlight the importance of continued surveillance. Long-term strategies for monitoring and maintaining effective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 are critical to inform the role of NPIs to effectively manage future variants with potentially higher intrinsic transmissibility and severe outcomes.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Reference49 articles.
1. Office for National Statistics. International comparisons of possible factors affecting excess mortality. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/articles/internationalcomparisonsofpossiblefactorsaffectingexcessmortality/2022-12-20 (2022).
2. The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic
3. Office for National Statistics. Early insights into the impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and EU exit on business supply chains in the UK. https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/earlyinsightsintotheimpactsofthecoronaviruspandemicandeuexitonbusinesssupplychainsintheuk/february2021tofebruary2022 (2022).
4. SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant: recent progress and future perspectives;Sig Transduct Target Ther,2022
5. Infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections and reinfections during the Omicron wave
Cited by
1 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献