Assessing changes in global fire regimes
Author:
Sayedi Sayedeh SaraORCID, Abbott Benjamin WORCID, Vannière BorisORCID, Leys BérangèreORCID, Colombaroli Daniele, Romera Graciela GilORCID, Słowiński MichałORCID, Aleman Julie C.ORCID, Blarquez Olivier, Feurdean AngelicaORCID, Brown Kendrick, Aakala TuomasORCID, Alenius TeijaORCID, Allen KathrynORCID, Andric MajaORCID, Bergeron YvesORCID, Biagioni SiriaORCID, Bradshaw RichardORCID, Bremond Laurent, Brisset ElodieORCID, Brooks Joseph, Bruegger SandraORCID, Brussel ThomasORCID, Cadd HaideeORCID, Cagliero EleonoraORCID, Carcaillet ChristopherORCID, Carter VachelORCID, Catry Filipe X.ORCID, Champreux AntoineORCID, Chaste Emeline, Chavardès Raphaël DanielORCID, Chipman MelissaORCID, Conedera MarcoORCID, Connor SimonORCID, Constantine Mark, Mustaphi Colin CourtneyORCID, Dabengwa Abraham NORCID, Daniels WilliamORCID, De Boer ErikORCID, Dietze ElisabethORCID, Estrany JoanORCID, Fernandes PauloORCID, Finsinger WalterORCID, Flantua SuzetteORCID, Fox-Hughes PaulORCID, Gaboriau Dorian MORCID, Gayo Eugenia M.ORCID, Girardin Martin.PORCID, Glenn JefferyORCID, Glückler RameshORCID, González-Arango CatalinaORCID, Groves MariangelicaORCID, Hamilton Rebecca Jenner, Hamilton DouglasORCID, Hantson StijnORCID, Hapsari K. AnggiORCID, Hardiman MarkORCID, Hawthorne DonnaORCID, Hoffman KiraORCID, Iglesias VirginiaORCID, Inoue JunORCID, Karp Allison TORCID, Krebs Patrik, Kulkarni CharutaORCID, Kuosmanen NiinaORCID, Lacourse TerriORCID, Ledru Marie-PierreORCID, Lestienne MarionORCID, Long Colin, López-Sáez José Antonio, Loughlin NicholasORCID, Lynch Elizabeth, Niklasson Mats, Madrigal JavierORCID, Maezumi S. YoshiORCID, Marcisz KatarzynaORCID, Meyer Grant, Mariani MichelaORCID, McWethy DavidORCID, Molinari ChiaraORCID, Montoya EncarniORCID, Mooney ScottORCID, Morales-Molino CesarORCID, Morris Jesse, Moss PatrickORCID, Oliveras Imma, Pereira José MiguelORCID, Pezzatti Gianni BorisORCID, Pickarski NadineORCID, Pini RobertaORCID, Robin VincentORCID, Rehn EmmaORCID, Remy CecileORCID, Rius DamienORCID, Ruan Yanming, Rudaya NataliaORCID, Russell-Smith Jeremy, Seppä HeikkiORCID, Shumilovskikh Lyudmila, Sommers William T., Tavşanoğlu ÇağatayORCID, Umbanhowar CharlesORCID, Urquiaga EricksonORCID, Urrego DuniaORCID, Vachula RichardORCID, Wallenius Tuomo, You Chao, Daniau Anne-LaureORCID
Abstract
AbstractHuman activity has fundamentally altered wildfire on Earth, creating serious consequences for human health, global biodiversity, and climate change. However, it remains difficult to predict fire interactions with land use, management, and climate change, representing a serious knowledge gap and vulnerability. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 98 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Respondents indicated that direct human activity was already influencing wildfires locally since at least~12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime until around 5000 years BP. Responses showed a ten-fold increase in the rate of wildfire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in fire frequency, severity, and/or size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regime showed quite different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, concluding that management options are seriously constrained under higher emission scenarios.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Cited by
1 articles.
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