ARBITRAGE PRICING MODEL IN RELATION TO EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESES

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to distinguish between efficient and inefficient markets and check the validity and efficiency of Arbitrage Pricing Theory in these markets (United States and Hong Kong). In order to distinguish between efficient and inefficient markets, Durbin Watson Autocorrelation tests were applied on 12 stock exchanges name EUROPE, HONG KONG, INDIA, TAIWAN, AMSTERDAM, MALAYSIA, UNITED STATES, CANADA, TOKYO, AUSTRALIA, AUSTRIA, and SWITZERLAND. Furthermore, the efficiency was further checked through comparison of the market and locally listed mutual funds. After the selection of Hong Kong and United States Stock Exchanges, 10 macroeconomic variables (Inflation, Short Term Interest Rate, Long Term Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Money Supply, Gold Prices, Oil Prices, Industrial Production Index, Market Return and Unemployment Rate were tested upon so that the APT model could be constructed. Tests like Normality and Multi-co-linearity were performed. Principle Component Analysis was used to reduce the number of variables. After all the above mentioned tests 4 variables were chosen to represent the APT in both the Hong Kong and United States Stock Exchanges. Lastly OLS Regression was applied to study the effect of these macroeconomic variables on the stock prices. The results showed that Hong Kong Stock Exchange was the most efficient while United States Stock Exchange fell in the inefficient category. The efficiency of APT was proven through the analysis of the value of R2. This value proved that when similar model of APT is applied in two different stock exchanges, the results would be more efficient in an efficient market like Hong Kong. This is the first attempt at constructing an APT Model based on the economic conditions in one country and applying the same model in a highly efficient market; in order to relate the performance of APT with market efficiency.