Somalia’s Foreign Relations in the Context of the Latest Offensive Against Al Shabaab

Abstract

The political and military weight of clans, foreign interventions, the relations between the local, provincial and federal levels, the strength of the national idea and attachment to political islam have historically been determining factors behind either success or failure of state policy in Somalia. 2021 was an annus horribilis in Somalia's annals, marked by an electoral crisis, mutiny, tensions between the president and prime minister, a conflict between the federal state and Puntland, the departure of the last American soldiers, intensifying crisis with Kenya and Djibouti and attacks of the capital by al Shabaab, which are on the offensive since 2019. 2022 however saw the stars aligning for the strengthening of the state and the recovering of Somalian sovereignty: election of president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, nomination of PM Hamza Amdi Barre, appeasement of the wars in Tigray and Yemen, setting of ATMIS to give the former AMISOM a clear mandate to support the Somali Transition Plan. Despite the new president's willingness to address the Shabaab menace not only militarily but ideologically, calls for dialogue and the appointing of a Shabaab co-founder as religion minister, 2022 also saw the deadliest engagements ever recorded by NGO ACLED in the country during an offensive that seemed to gain momentum in the second half of the year with the support of ATMIS and other foreign partners. This paper therefore aims to explore the new paradigms behind Somalia's foreign relations under her new leadership, to evaluate how much they help or hinder Somalia's war effort against al Shabaab and state consolidation and to explore possible scenarii in the near future.