China and the Islamic State in the Sahel: An Assessment of Potential Threats to Chinese Interests in the Central Sahel

Abstract

Seeking to fill a void in the existing scholarship since no scholar has yet to examine the Islamic State Sahel Province’s threat to China, this study utilizes a unique approach to examine two questions, namely does the Islamic State Sahel Province pose a threat to Chinese interests in the Central Sahel, and is it likely to impact Beijing’s relations with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger?Part one of this study utilizes data from the Armed Conflict and Event Data Location Data (ACLED) and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) to construct the group’s operational profile. The operational profile covers political violence and strategic developments in each country and across the subregion; the expanse of and shifts in areas of operations; and tactics and targets in each terrorism incident by country and the subregion. Findings from the data analysis are utilized in the second part in conjunction with additional data collected on the economy and China’s economic relations to assess whether the group poses a threat to Chinese interests. The study concludes that in the short-term, the Islamic State Sahel Province does not pose a threat to those interests and recognizes the potential change of the threat in long-term.