Strategic Forecast for Rail Freight Transport in Romania using the Relevant Tree Method and Scenario Method

Abstract

The paper focuses on the use of strategic forecasting using the Relevant Tree Method and the Scenario Method for rail freight transport in order to achieve the objectives established in the European Green Deal. The Relevant Tree Method shows that the solution for stimulating rail freight traffic in Romania consists in increasing the allocation of funds for the modernization works of the railway infrastructure. Thus, an important part of the internal freight traffic will be transferred from the road system to the railway. “The modernization of the railway infrastructure involves major works to modify the infrastructure, which will improve its overall performance”, according to the Law 202/2016. On the other hand, the emergency plan resulting from the use of the Scenario Method shows that if the conditions for the development of the external environment for the organizations in the rail freight transport sector end up being very favourable, it is required to adopt some measures in time, for the employment personnel in this sector, so as to increase the competences of organizations in this field. Thus, it is necessary to grant motivating salary packages, which also include professional training programs, as well as capitalizing on access to know-how, which will be favoured by European funds. This will avoid the wear and tear of locomotives and wagons, but also of equipment and installations.