Demographic parameters of southern right whales off South Africa

Abstract

Aerial counts of right whale cow-calf pairs on the south coast of South Africa between 1971 and 1998 indicate an annual instantaneouspopulation increase rate of 0.068 per year (SE = 0.004) over this period. Annual photographic surveys since 1979 have resulted in 901resightings of 550 individual cows. Observed calving intervals ranged from 2-15 years, with a principal mode at 3 years and secondarymodes at 6, 9 and 12 years, but these make no allowance for missed calvings. Using the model of Payne et al. (1990), a maximum calvinginterval of 5 years produces the best fit to the data giving a mean calving interval of 3.12 years (95% confidence interval: 3.07, 3.17). Thesame model produces an estimate for adult female survival rate of 0.983 (95% CI: 0.972, 0.994). The Payne et al. (1990) model is extendedto incorporate information on the observed ages of first reproduction of grey-blazed calves, which are known to be female. This allows theestimation of age at first parturition (median 7.88 years 95% CI 7.17, 9.29). Updates of estimates and confidence intervals for the otherdemographic parameters are: adult female survival rate 0.986 (0.976, 0.999); first year survival rate 0.913 (0.601, 0.994) and instantaneouspopulation increase rate 0.071 (0.059, 0.082). These biological parameter estimates are shown to be compatible with the observed increaserate of the population without the need to postulate immigration.