On the Distribution of the Nearly Unstable AR(1) Process with Heavy Tails

Author:

Olvera-Cravioto Mariana

Abstract

We consider a nearly unstable, or near unit root, AR(1) process with regularly varying innovations. Two different approximations for the stationary distribution of such processes exist: a Gaussian approximation arising from the nearly unstable nature of the process and a heavy-tail approximation related to the tail asymptotics of the innovations. We combine these two approximations to obtain a new uniform approximation that is valid on the entire real line. As a corollary, we obtain a precise description of the regions where each of the Gaussian and heavy-tail approximations should be used.

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Statistics and Probability

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