On waiting times to populate an environment and a question of statistical inference

Abstract

The mathematical model we consider here is the classical Bienaymé–Galton–Watson branching process modified with immigration in the state zero.We study properties of the waiting time to explosion of the supercritical modified process, i.e. that time until all beginning cycles which die out have disappeared. We then derive the expected total progeny of a cycle and show how higher moments can be computed. With a view to applications the main goal is to show that any statistical inference from observed cycle lengths or estimates of total progeny on the fertility rate of the process must be treated with care. As an example we discuss population experiments with trout.