PETROL FİYATI ŞOKU VE TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNİN MAKROEKONOMİK PERFORMANSI

Abstract

The variations in the price of oil can have influential effects on the macroeconomic performance of countries, as oil is a fundamental source in the production of many goods. This paper explores the influence of oil price shocks on macroeconomic indicators in Türkiye employing Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model with a long-run relationship using data from 2009.Q1 to 2022.Q4. The findings from the investigation of the long-run association indicate that there is a non-significant negative association among the price of oil and GDP, employment and inflation. Furthermore, we find that as the period extends, the forecast error shock of oil explains less and less of itself, while other variables begin to explain more of the variation of oil price. Lastly, the results from the impulse decomposition validate that of the variance composition as a positive one standard deviation shock in inflation rate, GDP, and employment rate widens oil price.