A Financial and Global Demand Analysis to Inform Decisions for Funding and Clinical Development of Group B Streptococcus Vaccines for Pregnant Women

Abstract

Abstract Background Despite group B Streptococcus (GBS) being a leading cause of maternal and infant morbidity and mortality, no vaccine is currently available. To inform vaccine developers, countries, and funders, we analyzed the key factors likely to influence the demand for a GBS vaccine and the long-term financial sustainability for a vaccine developer. Methods Using population-based forecasting, we estimated the demand for a GBS vaccine; using a discounted cash flow model we estimated the financial viability for a vaccine developer. Results Demand for this vaccine can be significant if countries adopt policy recommendations for use, in particular, the largest ones, most of which have a burden that justifies use of the vaccine, and if financing for the vaccine is made available either by countries or by funding mechanisms such as Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Conclusions This analysis suggests the potential for financial and commercial viability for a vaccine developer pursuing the commercialization of a GBS vaccine. Risks exists in relation to the clinical trial design and costs, the level of competition, countries’ ability to pay, the administration schedule, and the availability of policies that encourage use of the vaccine. To reduce those risks and ensure equitable access to a GBS vaccine, the role of donors or financers can prove very important, as can a coordinated operational research agenda that aims at clarifying those areas of uncertainty.