The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015*

Author:

Jordà Òscar1,Knoll Katharina2,Kuvshinov Dmitry3,Schularick Moritz4,Taylor Alan M5

Affiliation:

1. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and University of California, Davis

2. Deutsche Bundesbank

3. University of Bonn

4. University of Bonn and Centre for Economic Policy Research

5. University of California, Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; and Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract

Abstract What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive data set for all major asset classes, including housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new findings and puzzles.

Funder

Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung

Institute for New Economic Thinking

Bank of England

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Cornell University

New York University

University of Chicago Booth School of Business

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Economics and Econometrics

Reference71 articles.

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4. Rich Pickings? Risk, Return, and Skill in the Portfolios of the Wealthy;Bach,2016

5. The Deficit Gamble;Ball;Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,1998

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