Decomposition of medical imaging spending growth between 2010 and 2021 in the US employer–insured population

Abstract

Abstract Medical imaging, identified as a potential driver of unsustainable US health care spending growth, was subject to policies to reduce prices and use in low-value settings. Meanwhile, the Affordable Care Act increased access to preventive services—many involving imaging—for employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) beneficiaries. We used a large insurance claims database to examine imaging spending trends in the ESI population between 2010 and 2021—a period of considerable policy and benefits changes. Nominal spending on imaging increased 35.9% between 2010 and 2021, but as a share of total health care spending fell from 10.5% to 8.9%. The 22.5% growth of nominal imaging prices was below inflation, 24.3%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. Other key contributors to imaging spending growth were increased use (7.4 percentage points [pp]), shifts toward advanced modalities (4.0 pp), and demographic changes (3.5 pp). Shifts in care settings and provider network participation resulted in 2.5-pp and 0.3-pp imaging spending decreases, respectively. In sum, imaging spending decreased as a share of all health care spending and relative to inflation, as intended by concurrent cost-containment policies.