Modeling Population Growth of The Ovenbird (Seiurus Aurocapilla) in the Southern Appalachians

Abstract

Abstract Studies of source-sink dynamics are often prompted by concerns about negative population trends. Estimates of population trajectories are usually based on assumptions about survival rates and empirical measures of fecundity. Most models ignore the influence of the rates of renesting and multiple brooding. We used the Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) as a model Neotropical migratory songbird species to investigate the relative effects of annual female survival and components of annual fecundity on population growth rates. We applied productivity data from a three- year field study and data from Hann (1937) to several models of annual fecundity to examine the sensitivity of lambda to variations in annual female survival and the likelihood of renesting and double-brooding. Our simulations illustrate the importance of incorporating estimates of annual survival and rates of additional breeding attempts in songbird population models because population growth rates are quite sensitive to variations in these parameters. Lambda is especially sensitive to survival estimates and changes with them at the same order of magnitude. Whenever feasible, female survival and probabilities of additional breeding attempts should be estimated by direct methods. The indirect methods used in our study (annual female survival estimated from the age ratio of breeding females, and rates of renesting and double- brooding determined from the timing of reproduction) probably underestimated these parameters. Modelado del Crecimiento Poblacional de Seiurus aurocapilla en el Sur de los Apalaches