Estimation of optimal treatment regimes with electronic medical record data using the residual life value estimator

Author:

Rhodes Grace1,Davidian Marie2,Lu Wenbin2

Affiliation:

1. Eli Lilly and Company , Indianapolis, IN 46204, USA

2. Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University , SAS Hall, 2311 Stinson Dr , Raleigh, NC 27607, USA

Abstract

Summary Clinicians and patients must make treatment decisions at a series of key decision points throughout disease progression. A dynamic treatment regime is a set of sequential decision rules that return treatment decisions based on accumulating patient information, like that commonly found in electronic medical record (EMR) data. When applied to a patient population, an optimal treatment regime leads to the most favorable outcome on average. Identifying optimal treatment regimes that maximize residual life is especially desirable for patients with life-threatening diseases such as sepsis, a complex medical condition that involves severe infections with organ dysfunction. We introduce the residual life value estimator (ReLiVE), an estimator for the expected value of cumulative restricted residual life under a fixed treatment regime. Building on ReLiVE, we present a method for estimating an optimal treatment regime that maximizes expected cumulative restricted residual life. Our proposed method, ReLiVE-Q, conducts estimation via the backward induction algorithm Q-learning. We illustrate the utility of ReLiVE-Q in simulation studies, and we apply ReLiVE-Q to estimate an optimal treatment regime for septic patients in the intensive care unit using EMR data from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring Intensive Care database. Ultimately, we demonstrate that ReLiVE-Q leverages accumulating patient information to estimate personalized treatment regimes that optimize a clinically meaningful function of residual life.

Funder

National Institutes of Health

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

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