Mixed linear and non-linear tree volume models with regional parameters to main tree species in Finland

Abstract

Abstract The volume models that have been used in Finland for the last 40 years, while generally well thought-out, exhibit an illogical behaviour for small trees. In recent studies, tree stem form was observed to have changed in time and also involve spatial variation attributable to environmental factors. It is yet unclear how the stem taper has actually changed. To overcome these problems, we fitted a completely new set of volume and taper curve models and examined whether this change is attributable to the changes in management and environmental factors rather than to measurement errors in the previously used datasets. For the latter, we added a dataset into the analysis, which was smaller but of higher quality due to the destructive nature of the stem taper measurements. We aim at (1) developing a new non-linear variable form factor volume function that works with trees of all sizes, (2) improving the description of the variation of the stem form in time and space by including temperature sum and soil type as predictors, (3) understanding the changes in the stem form by fitting new taper curve models and (4) improving the statistical properties of the predictions by using mixed model techniques and by addressing the effect of parameter uncertainty. To assess the impact of renewing the models, we (5) predicted the mean volume and its confidence interval with each model for forest inventory data at country level. The results show that the tree stem form has a spatial trend that can be described with the temperature sum. Moreover, the changes in stem form also have a spatial trend, with largest changes in Lapland. The difference is mostly observable in the lowest part of the stem, and it is especially large in the largest pines. We conclude that environmental variables can help to improve national stem taper functions in countries with pronounced environmental gradients.