The risk and benefit profiles of US-eligible lung cancer screening attendees vs nonattendees

Abstract

Abstract Background The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommend lung cancer screening for individuals aged 50-80 years with at least 20 pack-years and no more than 15 quit-years, but uptake is low. The risk and benefit profiles of screening attendees are unknown; consequently, the impact and lost opportunity of ongoing lung cancer screening in the United States remains unclear. Methods We estimated lung cancer death risk (using the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool) and life gained from screening (using the Life Years Gained From Screening-Computed Tomography model) for individuals aged 50-79 years who ever-smoked in the US representative 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We compared lung cancer death risk and life gained among USPSTF-eligible individuals by screening status (self-reported screened vs not screened in past year) and estimated the number of lung cancer deaths averted and life-years gained under current screening levels and if everyone eligible was screened. Results USPSTF eligibility was 33.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 33.1% to 34.4%), of whom 17.9% (95% CI = 17.0% to 18.8%) self-reported screening. Screening uptake increased with increasing lung cancer death risk quintile (Q1 = 5.2%, 95% CI = 3.0% to 8.8%; Q5 = 21.8%, 95% CI = 20.3% to 23.3%) and life-gain from screening quintile (Q1 = 6.2%, 95% CI = 3.8% to 9.9%; Q5 = 20.8%, 95% CI = 19.5% to 22.2%). Screened individuals had higher lung cancer death risk (risk ratio [RR] = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.26 to 1.46) and life-years gained (RR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.12 to 1.25) than unscreened individuals. Currently, screening averts 19 306 lung cancer deaths and gains 237 564 life-years; screening everyone eligible would additionally avert 56 956 lung cancer deaths and gain 751 850 life-years. Two-thirds of USPSTF lung-eligible women were up to date with breast cancer screening, but only 17.3% attended lung screening in the past year. Conclusions Eligible screening attendees had higher lung cancer death risk and benefit from screening. Higher rates of screening could substantially increase the number of lung cancer deaths prevented.