Personalized starting age of gastric cancer screening based on individuals’ risk profiles: a population-based, prospective study

Abstract

Abstract Background The current recommended starting age for gastric cancer screening lacks unified guideline and individualized criteria. We aimed to determine the risk-stratified starting age for gastric cancer screening in China based on individuals’ risk profiles and to develop an online calculator for clinical application. Methods In this multicenter, population-based, prospective study, we allocated participants enrolled between 2015 and 2017 (N = 59 771, aged 40-69 years) to screened and unscreened groups and observed them for primary endpoints: gastric cancer occurrence as well as all-cause and gastric cancer–specific death. Median follow-up was 6.07 years. To determine the reference starting age, the effectiveness of gastric cancer screening was assessed by age group after propensity score matching. Further, we categorized the calculated individual risk scores (using well-established risk factors) by quantile. Subsequently, we used age-specific, 10-year cumulative risk curves to estimate the risk-stratified starting age—that is, when the individual’s risk level matches the reference starting age risk threshold. Results During follow-up, 475 gastric cancer case patients, 182 gastric cancer–related deaths, and 1860 all-cause deaths occurred. All-cause and gastric cancer–specific mortality decreased among screened individuals 45 years of age and older and 50 to 59 years of age, respectively. Thus, the average population (referent) starting age was set as 50 years. The 10-year cumulative risk of gastric cancer in the average population aged 50 years was 1.147%. We stratified the starting age using 8 risk factors and categorized participants as low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk individuals whose risk-stratified starting age was 58, 50, and 46 years, respectively. Conclusion Although high-risk individuals warrant starting gastric cancer screening 3 to 5 years earlier than for the average population (aged 50 years), low-risk individuals can tolerate delayed screening. Our online, personalized starting age calculator will help with risk-adapted gastric cancer screening (https://web.consultech.com.cn/gastric/#/).