The Future of Sino-Russian Relations in the Russian Far East: A Stable but Not Impervious Equilibrium

Abstract

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the nature of Sino-Russian relations by applying a multi-vector framework to examine the tenability of the so-called strategic partnership between Russia and China in the Russian Far East (RFE). Addressing a growing body of literature that seeks to move beyond single-factor evaluations of the dyadic relationship, I embrace the principles of analytic eclecticism, borrowing from Voskressenki's (Alexei D. Voskressenski, Russia and China: A Theory of Inter-State Relations [London, 2003]) multifactor framework to advance an argument for intertwining the three dominant international relations research traditions—realism, liberalism, and constructivism—to conduct a more comprehensive evaluation of the current equilibrium in the RFE, rather than assuming in advance the most pertinent lens. This in turn allows for more effective application of international relations theory to Sino-Russian studies. To accomplish my aim, I incorporate data pertaining to economic, geopolitical, and ideational factors. From these data, I find that the relationship in the RFE is in a state of stable equilibrium, with the most important vectors contributing to the balance for each side at present, geopolitical considerations for Moscow and ideational concerns for Beijing, being conducive to cooperation. The short-term potential for conflict is thus minimal, but a shock in the form of increasing Chinese nationalist hostility toward Russia or continued territorial belligerence by Russia internationally would severely endanger the status quo. By applying a similar approach to other dimensions of the Sino-Russian relationship, scholars can gain greater traction in assessing the robustness of the continually evolving bilateral partnership between these two large and important neighbors.