Optimizing the order of actions in a model of contact tracing

Author:

Meister Michela1ORCID,Kleinberg JonORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Computer Science, Cornell University , Ithaca, NY 14853 , USA

Abstract

Abstract Contact tracing is a key tool for managing epidemic diseases like HIV, tuberculosis, COVID-19, and monkeypox. Manual investigations by human-contact tracers remain a dominant way in which this is carried out. This process is limited by the number of contact tracers available, who are often overburdened during an outbreak or epidemic. As a result, a crucial decision in any contact tracing strategy is, given a set of contacts, which person should a tracer trace next? In this work, we develop a formal model that articulates these questions and provides a framework for comparing contact tracing strategies. Through analyzing our model, we give provably optimal prioritization policies via a clean connection to a tool from operations research called a “branching bandit”. Examining these policies gives qualitative insight into trade-offs in contact tracing applications.

Funder

National Defense Science & Engineering Graduate

MURI

AFOSR

ARO

MacArthur Foundation

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

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