A Simple Model for Predicting Annual Numbers of Southern Pine Beetle Infestations in East Texas

Abstract

Abstract Eleven climatic variables, recorded during the period 1966-76, were used to develop a multiple linear regression model for predicting potential number of southern pine beetle (SPB) infestations for east Texas. Four climatic variables were significantly (P < 0.05) related to numbers of SPB infestations. These were (1) mean temperature for February of current year, (2) total rainfall for previous summer, (3) total rainfall for previous fall, and (4) total rainfall for previous spring. The regression analysis accounted for 90.7 percent of the variation in yearly numbers of SPB infestations.