An Epidemiological Retrospective and Predictive Analysis of Rubella in Beijing, Haidian District of China

Abstract

Abstract Background This study is aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of rubella in Beijing, Haidian District of China, from 2005 to 2020, providing scientific basis for controlling rubella and the congenital rubella syndrome. Methods Data were collected via the legal infectious disease report cards from medical institutions in Haidian, 2005–2020. The descriptive epidemiological methods plus statistical analysis were used to analyze the distribution of rubella in terms of population, time and region. Results In total, there were 994 cases of rubella in Beijing, Haidian District, with an average incidence of 1.81/100 000. In 2007, it was hit by rubella with the highest incidence up to 8.37/100 000, in the past 16 years. The peak incident of rubella was in spring (March to May). The majority of rubella patients were students and employees (70.1%) who are infected mainly due to the gathering. The majority of patients aged 15–29 years (63.4%). And the male-to-female ratio was 1.45 : 1. Rubella had a feature of spatial aggregation and appeared in all the regions in Haidian. According to Joinpoint regression model, rubella would still exist in the next 3 years with 2–5 new cases per year. Conclusions Rubella showed a downshift trend from 2008 to 2014, then a sporadic distribution till 2020 in Haidian. Not completely eliminated yet, it is quite impending to improve people’s awareness of preventing rubella and their health literacy mentally and physically in the whole population by means of the policy issuing from government.