Identification and validation of a potent multi-mRNA signature for the prediction of early relapse in hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Abstract Early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is implicated in poor patient survival and is the major obstacle to improving prognosis. The current staging systems are insufficient for accurate prediction of early recurrence, suggesting that additional indicators for early recurrence are needed. Here, by analyzing the gene expression profiles of 12 Gene Expression Omnibus data sets (n = 1533), we identified 257 differentially expressed genes between HCC and non-tumor tissues. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to identify a 24-messenger RNA (mRNA)-based signature in discovery cohort GSE14520. With specific risk score formula, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. Recurrence-free survival within 2 years (early-RFS) was significantly different between these two groups in discovery cohort [hazard ratio (HR): 7.954, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.596–13.767, P < 0.001], internal validation cohort (HR: 8.693, 95% CI: 4.029–18.754, P < 0.001) and external validation cohort (HR: 5.982, 95% CI: 3.414–10.480, P < 0.001). Multivariable and subgroup analyses revealed that the 24-mRNA-based classifier was an independent prognostic factor for predicting early relapse of patients with HCC. We further developed a nomogram integrating the 24-mRNA-based signature and clinicopathological risk factors to predict the early-RFS. The 24-mRNA-signature-integrated nomogram showed good discrimination (concordance index: 0.883, 95% CI: 0.836–0.929) and calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the 24-mRNA-signature-integrated nomogram was clinically useful. In conclusion, our 24-mRNA signature is a powerful tool for early-relapse prediction and will facilitate individual management of HCC patients.