Seeing Is Disbelieving: The Depths and Limits of Factual Misinformation in War

Abstract

Abstract Misinformation, lies, and fake news are pervasive in war. But when are they actually believed by the people who live in war zones, and when are they not? This question is key, as their spread can spark greater violence and spoil efforts to make peace. In this study, we advance a new argument about lies in war. Building on existing research that links people's factual beliefs in conflict to their psychological and informational biases, we argue that they also hinge on their exposure and proximity to relevant events. While war is rife with lies, those close to the action have the means and the motives to see through them. We test this argument with a unique combination of survey and event data from the Coalition air campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in contemporary Iraq, finding support for our theory. Ultimately, the results help enhance our understanding of the dynamics of modern armed conflict and the reach of misinformation in contemporary world politics.