Impact of social determinants of health on improving the LACE index for 30-day unplanned readmission prediction

Abstract

Abstract Objective Early and accurate prediction of patients at risk of readmission is key to reducing costs and improving outcomes. LACE is a widely used score to predict 30-day readmissions. We examine whether adding social determinants of health (SDOH) to LACE can improve its predictive performance. Methods This is a retrospective study that included all inpatient encounters in the state of Maryland in 2019. We constructed predictive models by fitting Logistic Regression (LR) on LACE and different sets of SDOH predictors. We used the area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate discrimination and SHapley Additive exPlanations values to assess feature importance. Results Our study population included 316 558 patients of whom 35 431 (11.19%) patients were readmitted after 30 days. Readmitted patients had more challenges with individual-level SDOH and were more likely to reside in communities with poor SDOH conditions. Adding a combination of individual and community-level SDOH improved LACE performance from AUC = 0.698 (95% CI [0.695–0.7]; ref) to AUC = 0.708 (95% CI [0.705–0.71]; P < .001). The increase in AUC was highest in black patients (+1.6), patients aged 65 years or older (+1.4), and male patients (+1.4). Discussion We demonstrated the value of SDOH in improving the LACE index. Further, the additional predictive value of SDOH on readmission risk varies by subpopulations. Vulnerable populations like black patients and the elderly are likely to benefit more from the inclusion of SDOH in readmission prediction. Conclusion These findings provide potential SDOH factors that health systems and policymakers can target to reduce overall readmissions.