The Promise of Polygenic Risk Prediction in Smoking Cessation: Evidence From Two Treatment Trials

Author:

Bray Michael12,Chang Yoonhoo1,Baker Timothy B3,Jorenby Douglas3,Carney Robert M1,Fox Louis1,Pham Giang1,Stoneking Faith1ORCID,Smock Nina14,Amos Christopher I56ORCID,Bierut Laura14,Chen Li-Shiun14ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Psychiatry, Washington University School of Medicine , St. Louis, MO , USA

2. Department of Genetic Counseling, Bay Path University , Longmeadow, MA , USA

3. Department of Medicine, School of Medicine and Public Health, Center for Tobacco Research and Intervention, University of Wisconsin , Madison, WI , USA

4. The Alvin J. Siteman Cancer Center, Washington University School of Medicine , St. Louis, MO , USA

5. Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Institute for Clinical and Translational Research , Houston, TX , USA

6. Department of Biomedical Data Science, Geisel School of Medicine, Dartmouth College , Hanover, NH , USA

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Tobacco use disorder is a complex behavior with a strong genetic component. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on smoking behaviors allow for the creation of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) to approximate genetic vulnerability. However, the utility of smoking-related PRSs in predicting smoking cessation in clinical trials remains unknown. Aims and Methods We evaluated the association between polygenic risk scores and bioverified smoking abstinence in a meta-analysis of two randomized, placebo-controlled smoking cessation trials. PRSs of smoking behaviors were created using the GWAS and Sequencing Consortium of Alcohol and Nicotine use (GSCAN) consortium summary statistics. We evaluated the utility of using individual PRS of specific smoking behavior versus a combined genetic risk that combines PRS of all four smoking behaviors. Study participants came from the Transdisciplinary Tobacco Use Research Centers (TTURCs) Study (1091 smokers of European descent), and the Genetically Informed Smoking Cessation Trial (GISC) Study (501 smokers of European descent). Results PRS of later age of smoking initiation (OR [95% CI]: 1.20, [1.04–1.37], p = .0097) was significantly associated with bioverified smoking abstinence at end of treatment. In addition, the combined PRS of smoking behaviors also significantly predicted bioverified smoking abstinence (OR [95% CI] 0.71 [0.51–0.99], p = .045). Conclusions PRS of later age at smoking initiation may be useful in predicting smoking cessation at the end of treatment. A combined PRS may be a useful predictor for smoking abstinence by capturing the genetic propensity for multiple smoking behaviors. Implications There is a potential for polygenic risk scores to inform future clinical medicine, and a great need for evidence on whether these scores predict clinically meaningful outcomes. Our meta-analysis provides early evidence for potential utility of using polygenic risk scores to predict smoking cessation amongst smokers undergoing quit attempts, informing further work to optimize the use of polygenic risk scores in clinical care.

Funder

National Institutes of Health

National Institute on Drug Abuse

Siteman Cancer Center and NCI Cancer Center Support Grant

Cancer Prevention Research Institute of Texas

National Center for Advancing Translation Sciences

National Institute on Aging

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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