Future burden of myocardial infarction in Australia: impact on health outcomes between 2019 and 2038

Abstract

Abstract Background Myocardial infarction (MI) remains a major health burden in Australia. Yet the future burden of MI has not been extensively studied for the Australian population. Methods and results A multistate lifetable model was constructed to estimate the lifetime risk of MI and project the health burden of MI for the Australian population aged between 40 and 100 years over a 20-year period (2019–2038). Data for the model were primarily sourced from the Victorian-linked dataset and supplemented with other national data. The lifetime risk of MI at age 40 was estimated as 24.4% for males and 13.2% for females in 2018. From 2019 to 2038, 891 142 Australians were projected to develop incident MI. By 2038, the model estimated there would be 702 226 people with prevalent MI, 51 262 incident non-fatal MI, and 3717 incident fatal MI; these numbers represent a significant increase compared to the 2019 estimates, with a 27.0% (148 827), 62.0% (19 629), and 104.7% (1901) rise, respectively. Projected years of life lived (YLL) (5% discount) accrued by the Australian population was 174 795 232 (84 356 304 in males and 90 438 928 in females), with 7 657 423 YLL among people with MI (4 997 009 in males and 2 660 414 in females). Conclusion The burden of MI was projected to increase between 2019 and 2038 in Australia. The outcomes of the model provide important information for decision-makers to prioritize population-wide prevention strategies to reduce the burden of MI.