A risk prediction model in asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis: CURRENT-AS risk score

Abstract

Abstract Aims Early aortic valve replacement (AVR) might be beneficial in selected high-risk asymptomatic patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS), considering their poor prognosis when managed conservatively. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical scoring system to predict AS-related events within 1 year after diagnosis in asymptomatic severe AS patients. Methods and results We analysed 1274 asymptomatic severe AS patients derived from a retrospective multicentre registry enrolling consecutive patients with severe AS in Japan (CURRENT AS registry), who were managed conservatively and completed 1-year follow-up without AVR. From a randomly assigned derivation set (N = 849), we developed CURRENT AS risk score for the AS-related event (a composite of AS-related death and heart failure hospitalization) within 1 year using a multivariable logistic regression model. The risk score comprised independent risk predictors including left ventricular ejection fraction <60%, haemoglobin ≤11.0 g/dL, chronic lung disease (2 points), diabetes mellitus, haemodialysis, and any concomitant valve disease (1 point). The predictive accuracy of the model was good with the area under the curve of 0.79 and 0.77 in the derivation and validation sets (N = 425). In the validation set, the 1-year incidence of AS-related events was much higher in patients with score ≥2 than in patients with score ≤1 (Score 0: 2.2%, Score 1: 1.9%, Score 2: 13.4%, Score 3: 14.3%, and Score ≥4: 22.7%, P < 0.001). Conclusion The CURRENT-AS risk score integrating clinical and echocardiographic factors well-predicted the risk of AS-related events at 1 year in asymptomatic patients with severe AS and was validated internally.