Mammographic Density Decline, Tamoxifen Response, and Prognosis by Molecular Characteristics of Estrogen Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer

Abstract

Abstract Background Mammographic breast density (MBD) decline post-tamoxifen initiation is a favorable prognostic factor in estrogen receptor (ER)–positive breast cancer (BC) and has potential utility as a biomarker of tamoxifen response. However, the prognostic value of MBD decline may vary by molecular characteristics among ER–positive patients. Methods We investigated associations between MBD decline (≥10% vs <10%) and breast cancer–specific mortality (BCSM) among ER–positive breast cancer patients aged 36-87 years at diagnosis treated with tamoxifen at Kaiser Permanente Northwest (1990-2008). Patients who died of BC (case patients; n = 62) were compared with those who did not (control patients; n = 215) overall and by tumor molecular characteristics (immunohistochemistry [IHC]–based subtype [luminal A–like: ER–positive/progesterone receptor [PR]–positive/HER2–negative/low Ki67; luminal B–like: ER–positive and 1 or more of PR–negative, HER2–positive, high Ki67] and modified IHC [mIHC]–based recurrence score of ER/PR/Ki67). Percent MBD was measured in the unaffected breast at baseline mammogram (mean = 6 months before tamoxifen initiation) and follow-up (mean = 12 months post-tamoxifen initiation). Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed from logistic regression models. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results MBD decline was statistically significantly associated with reduced risk of BCSM overall (OR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.15 to 0.92). This association was, however, stronger among women with aggressive tumor characteristics including luminal B–like (OR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.04 to 0.73) vs A–like (OR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.19 to 2.92); large (OR = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.08 to 0.78) vs small (OR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.04 to 3.79) tumors; PR–negative (OR = 0.02, 95% CI = 0.001 to 0.37) vs PR–positive (OR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.18 to 1.40) disease; and high (OR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.07 to 0.93) vs low (OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.10 to 2.09) mIHC3 score. Conclusion The findings support MBD decline as a prognostic marker of tamoxifen response among patients with aggressive ER–positive BC phenotypes, for whom understanding treatment effectiveness is critical.